What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Greats lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; theyre impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the experts, "The Black Swan" shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty. "Mindblowing... a masterpiece." Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Hugely enjoyable compelling." Financial Times "A deeply intelligent, provocative book." Economist